I have been asked many times this year, what I think the next big thing in mobile is - well I have decided, end of the year, to write a short article about it, it reflects a lot of opinions I already wrote down in my 2009 predictions, so make sure you read it before proceeding. Mobile phones are getting better and better, they can do e-mails, they can do TV, and many other interesting things. But what will people use and what will become the next great revenue generator? 

European mobile operators - Revenue forecasts should be down!

Well it depends on who you are, if you are a mobile operator, I would say your next big thing is mobile data, but generally mobile operators are going to go down (they have to). Mobile operators have no place for growth, as their revenues have been just going up so much, that I don’t even understand it. On the other hand if I compare my mobile phone bill, which is around:

€ 382 ($ 530) per month

Now that is horribly overexpensive. In some parts of town, that is the monthly rent, in many towns outside Prague, that is a monthly rent of a 4 bedroom apartment. 

Now I looked at prices in the US, for a combo card, unlimited text, voice, and data, I would pay $ 200 for both cards - $ 100 for each card per month. Which means I would pay over 5x less in the US then I pay home for the same ammount of services I am getting.

What does this all mean? Many operators in Europe are still a massive rip-off. No unlimited tarrifs, if they are unlimited, they dont include text and are horribly overexpensive. But EU regulations are coming, and roaming incoming calls and foreign outgoing calls will be regulated, as well as text and data. Normally I would say praise the open market, but operators are really acting like dinasours. They have to be stopped by something huge, and what is better then the EU regulations (thank God for them). So good luck, operators, hope you get regulated as much as you can throughout next year, as we (you know, your users), would like to pay a normal fair price for services we consume. 

Mobile services - Where is the money?

Both for mobile operators and third party providers, there is big money to be made in mobile services, mobile web, and mobile content. All of these things can either be premium and charged for, or advertising funded, which I believe will be the more used model for a bigger ammount of services - and it will start making some big money. Operators will have a big cut here, and the ones who have realized that and were smart enough to offer it early, those might be the leaders in their countries. Unfortunatelly the ones who are unflexible and unwilling to work with many companies and work with them quick, they will be overrun by local portals and agencies taking over on their own, working with 3rd party providers and eliminating the need to work with mobile operators. So yes, I think the next big money in mobile is in mobile advertising. Not mobile TV, not mobile content, which I believe will be declining (other then mobile games), but mobile advertising, ad-funded services, and anything related to mobile advertising and building your important network. 

The important question is now - when will that be, and when will advertisers start pouring serious money in mobile advertising, other then just the mobile content money, and mobile operators. For the sake of the market, I hope it will be soon enough.

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